July Economic Outlook Shows Continued Growth as Oklahoma Economy Cools

State Treasurer Todd Russ today released the July 2026 Economic Outlook Report, highlighting continued growth across several areas of Oklahoma’s economy as economic conditions show signs of gradually cooling.

The report shows Oklahoma’s energy sector remained a source of strength, with oil prices elevated and drilling activity increasing during July. Gross Production Tax revenue declined compared to July 2025, but the rolling 12-month trend continued to show meaningful growth, reflecting steady production activity and market conditions supporting Oklahoma’s energy-producing communities.

“July’s economic data shows Oklahoma continues to demonstrate resilience as economic conditions evolve,” said Treasurer Russ. “Continued revenue growth, strong energy activity, improving manufacturing conditions and steady employment provide a solid foundation, while inflation remains an important factor to watch.”

The report also highlights several national and state economic trends impacting Oklahoma consumers and businesses:

• Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with Oklahoma’s Business Conditions Index remaining well above growth neutral in July. Strong new orders, production and inventories pointed to continued activity, although employment fell below growth neutral and manufacturing job losses indicate businesses remain cautious about hiring.
• The labor market remained resilient, with Oklahoma’s unemployment rate increasing slightly to 4.2% in June while the national rate declined to 4.1% in July. Employment continues to grow, although slower hiring and softer business activity indicate the labor market is gradually cooling.
• Inflation showed more moderate growth, with the Consumer Price Index increasing 0.1% in July following June’s decline. The latest data points to slower and more stable price growth, although costs remain elevated in some consumer categories.
• PCE inflation moderated in June, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increasing 3.7% from a year earlier, down from 4.1% in May. The easing in annual price growth provides some relief from inflationary pressures.
• Mortgage rates moved higher during July, adding pressure to borrowing costs for prospective homebuyers. Rates remained below their 2025 highs but increased gradually throughout the month amid continued uncertainty surrounding inflation, financial markets and monetary policy.

Energy markets also remained supportive of Oklahoma’s economy. The average WTI crude oil price reached $80.46 in July, while the average rig count increased to 50. The report notes that continued strength in oil prices and production activity should support economic momentum as the summer progresses, although higher gasoline prices remain an important factor for consumers and inflation.

National financial markets remained elevated despite a late-month pullback, while Oklahoma’s Stock Index recovered some of its recent losses. The report notes that energy markets, commodity prices and broader economic conditions will remain important factors influencing investor sentiment.

The July Economic Outlook reflects an Oklahoma economy that continues to expand while showing signs of moderation. Strong energy activity, manufacturing growth and relatively low unemployment provide a solid foundation, while labor market softness, inflation and higher borrowing costs remain factors to monitor.

The complete July 2026 Economic Report is available at treasurer.ok.gov, including breakdowns by category, sector, and industry.