October 2018 GRF Collections Beat Estimate by 2.0%

OKLAHOMA CITY — General Revenue Fund collections in October were $520.2 million and came in at $10.0 million, or 2.0 percent, above the monthly estimate. This amount is $83.9 million, or 19.2 percent, above collections in October of 2017. Total collections over the first four months of the fiscal year are $20.4 million, or 1 percent, above the estimate to date and $202.6 million, or 11.5%, above prior year collections. 

"Most reporting categories look to be on stable footing with gross production and the other revenues category falling short of their estimates in October,"  said Office of Management and Enterprise Services Director Denise Northrup. "I'm encouraged to see individual income tax returns trending up. Solid returns in this category indicate businesses are expecting a healthy economy going into the holiday season."

Sales tax collections of $186.2 million were $321,000 or 0.2 percent, above the estimate and $10.5 million, or 6.0 percent, above the prior year and should be on track for the remainder of the fiscal year. Corporate income tax contributed nothing to GRF collections due to refunds paid. 

Gross production tax collections of $34.3 million were $1.6 million, or 4.5 percent, below the estimate and $11.6 million, or 51.2 percent, above the prior year. Total oil collections over the first four months remain $12.9 million, or 49.3 percent below the estimate primarily because oil revenues have yet to fulfill the required $150 million statutory cap first allocated to six revolving funds – largely for three education funds. 

"This year’s gross production forecast is built on oil at $53.08 (bbl) and natural gas at $2.99 (mcf). The news earlier today that the price of US crude oil dipped to its lowest level in a year at below $56 per barrel, indicates that there could be some challenges yet to come," stated Northrup. "The reality is there is a two to three month lag before the lower prices of today will impact collections for the remainder of the fiscal year, even if production remains steady." 

"The Board of Equalization meeting is coming up next month which will be our first opportunity to see preliminary estimates of the general revenue available for the FY 2020 budget," said Northrup. "Nothing I'm seeing now indicates that we will have significantly more money for agency appropriations than anticipated."

Denise Northrup is the director of OMES, which issues the monthly GRF reports.

Major tax categories in October contributed the following amounts to the GRF:

• Total income tax collections of $187.9 million were $14.9 million, or 8.6 percent, above the estimate and $25.3 million, or 15.5 percent, above the prior year.
  Individual income tax collections of $187.9 million were $16.0 or 9.3 percent, above the estimate and $25.3 million, or 15.5 percent, above the prior year.
  Corporate income tax collections were net zero and did not contribute to the total.
• Sales tax collections of $186.2 million were $321,000, or 0.2 percent, above the estimate and $10.5 million, or 6.0 percent, above the prior year.
• Gross production tax collections of $34.3 million were $1.6 million, or 4.5 percent, below the estimate and $11.6 million, or 51.2 percent, above the prior year.
  Natural gas collections of $34.1 million were $5.7 million, or 20.0 percent, above the estimate and $14.7 million, or 75.3 percent, above the prior year.
  Oil collections of $149,000 were $7.3 million, or 98 percent, below the estimate and $3.1 million, or 95.4 percent, below the prior year.
• Motor vehicle tax collections of $17.4 million were $259,000, or 1.5 percent, above the estimate and $652,000, or 3.9 percent, above the prior year.
• Other revenue collections of $94.6 million were $3.9 million, or 4.0 percent, below the estimate and $35.8 million, or 61.0 percent, above the prior year.

As state government’s main operating fund, the GRF is the key indicator of state government’s fiscal status and the predominant funding source for the annual appropriated state budget. GRF collections are revenues that remain for the appropriated state budget after rebates, refunds, other mandatory apportionments and after sales and use taxes are remitted back to municipalities. In contrast, gross collections, reported by the State Treasurer, are all revenues remitted to the Oklahoma Tax Commission. 

Revenue tables can be viewed on the OMES website: http://omes.ok.gov/pages/october-2018-financial-data-tables 

Shelley Zumwalt
Director of Public Affairs
405-535-5198 | [email protected]